Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Humanoid Robot Innovation and Development Guidance" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions") proposed that by 2025, the humanoid robot innovation system will be initially established, and a number of key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, and limb" will make breakthroughs to ensure the safe and effective supply of core components; By 2027, the innovation capability of humanoid robot technology will be significantly improved, a safe and reliable industrial chain supply chain system will be formed, an internationally competitive industrial ecology will be built, and the comprehensive strength will reach the world's advanced level.
A number of brokerages believe that domestic companies to enter the humanoid robot industry, the core parts of the domestic replacement is expected to usher in acceleration; In the context of declining hardware costs, the humanoid robot industry will gradually achieve mass production, driving the industrial chain to prosperity.
First clear humanoid robot development strategy
The Opinions propose that humanoid robots integrate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, and are expected to become disruptive products after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, which will profoundly change the way of human production and life and reshape the global industrial development pattern.
In the 1980s, the Japanese Honda company released the world's first commercial humanoid robot ASIMO, but due to the lack of intelligence and high cost and other factors, failed to achieve large-scale mass production popularity.
In recent years, with the development of large models of artificial intelligence, the three bottlenecks of humanoid robots are expected to be broken through.
In August 2021, Tesla announced the humanoid robot business plan at its first AIDay and proposed the concept design of humanoid robots; In September 2022, one year after Tesla proposed the concept design, it released the details of the robot hardware design and conducted a physical demonstration. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla has continued to release the humanoid robot Optimus software algorithm update progress, and the product landing is further.
In the domestic market, although the exploration of humanoid robots started relatively late, it has developed rapidly. Up to now, Xiaomi and Youbi have respectively launched CyberOne and WalkerX robots, and many manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, Liye Intelligence, Yushu Technology, and Pure Rice Technology have also launched humanoid robot originals.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that at present, the accelerated evolution of humanoid robot technology has become a new highland of scientific and technological competition, a new track for future industries, and a new engine for economic development.
"Opinions" proposed that by 2025, the humanoid robot innovation system has been preliminarily established, a number of key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, limb" have made breakthroughs, the whole machine products have reached the international advanced level, and achieved mass production, and have been demonstrated in special, manufacturing, people's livelihood services and other scenarios; The industry has accelerated to achieve large-scale development, and related products have been deeply integrated into the real economy, becoming an important new engine of economic growth.
Parts to accelerate the localization
Compared with general robots, humanoid robots have higher perception, motion control and interaction capabilities, so they need to be equipped with more complex structures, sensing, driving and control systems, which is known as the final form of artificial intelligence.
According to the "Opinions", in the next five years, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the cultivation of key products including machine, basic parts and software innovation.
In the whole process, we will promote the creation of a basic version of the whole machine, build a general machine platform for humanoid robots, and support the development of subsequent personalized functions; To meet the needs of different application scenarios, we develop humanoid robot products such as low-cost interactive, high-precision and high-reliability in extreme environments, and continue to improve the quality and reliability of the whole machine products.
In the basic part of the component, focus on the humanoid robot special sensor, breaking through the vision, hearing, force, smell and other high-precision sensor key technologies, improve the comprehensive perception of the environment; Develop high power density actuators, develop special chips for humanoid robots, and develop special energy efficient power components for humanoid robots.
At the same time, the construction of humanoid robot high real-time, high reliability, high intelligence of the special operating system, to promote the deep integration with the general large model technology; Develop application software for various scenarios, build and improve the humanoid robot application development platform and toolkit; Explore a new model of "robot as a service" to accelerate the low-cost and flexible deployment of humanoid robots.
Citic Securities pointed out that under the introduction of the end-to-end network, from slow walking to accelerated walking to the completion of difficult yoga movements, the robot's motion control ability has been greatly improved; In two years, the robot has grown from scratch, from hardware upgrade to software iteration, and the overall progress of the robot has exceeded market expectations.
Western Securities (002673) believes that as the robot industry gradually realizes mass production, the cost will decrease significantly; Domestic companies have entered the humanoid robot industry, and the domestic replacement of core components has accelerated, bringing about a decline in the cost of robot hardware and promoting the volume of humanoid robots.
The market space exceeds one trillion yuan
According to Western Securities estimates, taking into account factors such as robot price cuts, the new market space for domestic humanoid robots is expected to reach 503.5 billion yuan by 2030; From 2023 to 2030, the compound growth rate of new market space for humanoid robots is expected to reach 96%; In 2030, the global new market space for humanoid robots will be about 1.02 trillion yuan, and the compound growth rate of new market space from 2023 to 2030 is expected to exceed 80%.
Caitong Securities (601108) believes that in the long run, the sales of humanoid robots are expected to be no lower than the existing level of the automobile industry, if according to the humanoid robot unit price of $20,000 (Musk's AIDay price) calculation, the total market size of humanoid robots is expected to exceed 11 trillion yuan, and the potential market space is huge.
In addition, Goldman Sachs has estimated in the report that the humanoid robot market can be realized in the next 10 to 15 years, at least $6 billion, and even in the most ideal scenario, the humanoid robot market will reach $154 billion in 2035.
MarketsandMarkets predicts that over the next five years, the humanoid robot market will grow from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $13.8 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 50.2%.
From the perspective of cost composition, the hardware cost of robots is still relatively high. Taking Tesla's Optimus as an example, its humanoid robot contains a total of 28 joints, which can be divided into rotary joints (14) and linear joints (14). The rotary joint is composed of a motor, a harmonic reducer, a torque sensor, a position sensor, a cross roller bearing and a centripetal thrust ball bearing, and the linear joint is composed of a motor, a planetary roller screw, a torque sensor and a position sensor.
According to the calculation of Western Securities, the total hardware cost of robot rotating joints, linear joints, dexterous hands and structural parts is as high as 84.83%, only the cost of rotating joints is 41.83%, linear joints account for 16%, and the total account for nearly 60%.
Citic Securities believes that the development of humanoid robots will drive the growth of demand for rotary actuators (rotary joints).
From 2024, humanoid robots will enter the volume period, which is expected to significantly pull the market demand for rotary actuators, and the annual compound growth rate of rotary actuator demand is expected to increase from 7% in 2018-2023 to more than 30% in 2023-2025.
The rotary actuator is composed of a motor, a reducer, a sensor and a controller. It is the basic component unit of the electrified robot and is widely used in all kinds of robots.
The rotary actuator uses the motor as the power source, adjusts to the required torque output range through the reducer, and finally realizes servo control through the sensor and the controller. The function of the rotary actuator is to provide freedom for the robot, and the performance of the rotary actuator itself directly affects the bearing capacity and accuracy of the robot. The higher the complexity of use, the more rotary actuators are required.
From the perspective of the subdivided parts involved in the hardware, the cost of sensors, motors, and reducers accounted for 34%, 21% and 7%, respectively, which is the highest proportion of humanoid robots. Among them, robot sensors are divided into external sensors and internal sensors according to different detection objects. Internal sensors are used to feel the robot's own state, such as position, speed, acceleration, force sensors, etc. External sensors are used to detect the environment and conditions of the robot, such as proximity sensors, hearing, smell, vision, touch sensors, etc.
Western Securities pointed out in the research report that with reference to the sensor equipment of Tesla Optimus, force sensors are expected to account for 30% of the total cost of humanoid robots, and the overall sensor market space is expected to reach 268.1 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound growth rate of 86% from 2023 to 2030.
Motors are the core components of joint drive in humanoid robots, including frameless torque motors for large joints and hollow cup motors for fingers. Western Securities expects that by 2030, the market space of frameless torque motors and hollow cup motors will exceed 200 billion yuan and 90 billion yuan respectively, and the average annual growth rate from 2023 to 2030 will reach 98% and 97%, respectively, and the domestic alternative space is obvious.
In addition, the reducer is also one of the core components of the rotary actuator (rotary joint).
At present, humanoid robots widely use three main types of reducer, including harmonic reducer, RV reducer and planetary gear reducer.
The three retarders are suitable for different parts due to different characteristics.
Among them, the harmonic reducer is suitable for humanoid robot shoulder joint and wrist joint and other parts that need precise control; The planetary gear reducer is mainly suitable for fingers and other end joint parts.
Western Securities pointed out in the research report that it is expected that by 2030, the global market size of harmonic deceleration applied to humanoid robots will reach 71.8 billion yuan, and the compound annual growth rate from 2023 to 2030 is expected to be 103%; The market size of planetary reducer is expected to reach 59.9 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of about 105% from 2023 to 2030; By 2030, the overall market space of the global reducer will reach 131.7 billion yuan.
Source: Securities Market Weekly
