The guidance came out, the next day's trading day, the robot plate also ushered in a comprehensive rebound, November 3 to 14, according to the subdivision robot plate of Shenmillion three-level industry classification, the harmonic of the robot harmonic reducer's subdivision leader green (688017.SH) interval rebound reached 23%, and the robot (300024.SZ) rebounded more than 10%. However, although there was a brief rebound, but from the point of view of the amount of funds, the gradual shrinkage, the money sentiment came fast, and the retreat is also fast, and it is speculated that the market sentiment is only the concept reaction of policy and news driven.
We are also waiting for new economic growth points. In the guidance, it can be seen that the top layer hopes that "humanoid robots" can become a new engine to drive scientific and technological development and economic growth.
01
Why do top-level policies promote "humanoid robots"?
This goes back to the drivers of domestic growth in recent years.
From "infrastructure crazy" to "carbon neutral, carbon peak", in these years, there is no doubt that the new energy industry shoulders most of China's economic growth, from the expansion of domestic demand to external circulation exports, photovoltaic industry chain and domestic electric vehicle industry chain have made significant contributions, which can be clearly reflected in the output value growth, import and export growth data. However, the industry has a cycle, after high growth, with the principle of diminishing marginal utility, industrial growth has also fallen into a bottleneck, more typical is the recent photovoltaic industry, the market tends to saturation, gradually fell into the danger of overcapacity, upstream silicon prices plunged to the module price war, the growth of the industry tends to flatten, photovoltaic into maturity.
Domestic electric vehicles benefit from more than photovoltaic "a carriage", with consumer attributes, so the market is relatively broader, the industry is still in the expansion period, but from the lithium battery price and vehicle price trend, the industry is about to enter the late expansion seems not magic, the industry is reshuffling, the price war will inevitably "sacrifice" part of the manufacturers, before the Weima bankruptcy liquidation, After the NIO layoffs.
May question, the east number west calculation, artificial intelligence, computing power construction can also drive a new round of economic growth? However, there is a practical problem that China's digitalization will be a very long-term industry, and many hardware and software technologies still rely on imports, such as advanced process chips, and artificial intelligence CHATGPT is also temporarily ahead overseas. Of course, the progress of the "domestic replacement" in the past two years is also quite gratifying, but the drive for consumption is still limited, and the consumption upgrade of the internal cycle has not been completed, let alone the export of domestic hard technology, the road is blocked and long.
The key to humanoid robots is not only that the industries behind them can be driven are huge, including but not limited to new materials, rare earth permanent magnets, advanced manufacturing, hard technology to computer software, hardware, artificial intelligence, computing power construction, and more importantly, consumption in the "troika" that drives economic growth. From the meaning of the sentence "profoundly change human life" in the article, it is not difficult to speculate that consumer humanoid robots will be a milestone node. After all, in 2019, the "troika" of consumption, investment and net exports accounted for 55.4%, 43.1% and 1.5% of GDP, respectively, and contributed 57.8%, 31.2% and 11% to economic growth, respectively. In other words, domestic demand and external demand accounted for 98.5% and 1.5% of GDP, respectively, and contributed 89% and 11% to economic growth.
Driving consumption or top-level consideration of whether the industry can become a new engine of economic development is a key factor.
02
Robots or appliances?
However, when it comes to consumer-grade humanoid robots, consumer-grade, service-oriented, and changing people's lifestyles, the predecessor in China is easily associated with the sweeping robot that was very popular in the previous two years. Sweeping robots were once indeed a tuyere, but as sales increased, consumers began to question their functionality.
According to the price of the official website, a Cobos (603486) sweeping robot is the cheapest to 2000 pieces, and the highest sales of the model price is about 4000, and the price of a mop is less than 100 yuan, and the start of the mopping can also move, the price difference for the sensitivity of consumers put forward an absolute challenge. As a result, the market began to question whether "cleaning robots are IQ taxes."
According to public data, domestic sweeping robot sales of 4.41 million units in 2022, down 24% year-on-year; Sales in the first half of 2023 were 1.45 million units, down 5.39% year-on-year, and the full year of 2023 May be less than 3 million units. This sales volume has been halved compared to the annual sales volume of 6 million + before 2021. The market value of Cobos is even more dramatic. The company's market value from the peak of more than 140 billion in July 2021, to the beginning of November this year, the minimum remaining more than 24 billion, two and a half years of market value evaporation of more than 80%.
On the one hand, the reason for the sharp correction of the stock price is that the market for the performance of the industry and the company has concerns, the third quarter of Coworth's financial report is not ideal, the third quarter of 2023 revenue of 3.387 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.58%, but the net profit of the mother is only 0.19.6 million yuan, a decrease of 92%; On the other hand, the market began to question whether the sweeping robot is a robot or a home appliance, and the valuation logic behind it is completely different. The average PE(TTM) of the robotics industry can reach more than 46 times at present, and the expected valuation of the future is rising, while the average PE(TTM) of the home appliance sector is only more than 20 times, and the future expectation is still declining.
Cobos founder Qian Dongqi officially founded the brand in 2006 and launched the world's first sweeping robot "Dibao". At the same time, it still uses overseas foundry to maintain the company's performance. From the perspective of growth, benefiting from the mobile Internet, the 2017 industrial products before listing still grow steadily, and the growth of Dibao series is more obvious, which is behind the online market share of Dibao series robots that year reached 48.8%, and the offline market share was as high as 51.9%. From 2014 to 2017, it is the "Double Eleven" household electrical appliances.
2018 is a key year for Cobos, the company upgraded the original private brand "TEK Taiyi Kai" to "TINECO Add can", from the positioning of high-end intelligent household appliances brand, around vacuum cleaners, floor washing machines, etc., to Cobos + Add can double brand, that year is also with these two businesses successfully listed.
However, the performance of the company was not ideal in the first two years of listing, after listing in 2019, Cobos suffered a change in performance, annual revenue fell by 6.7% year-on-year to 5.312 billion, and net profit to the mother fell by 75% year-on-year, only 121 million for the year. On the one hand, the sales of the two brands of the overall product line are not very good, mainly because the overseas business is blocked, and the domestic income of the year is still slightly increased, but the overseas income is obviously declining, which is not an objective factor, because there are signs of decline from mid-2019; On the other hand, the cost did not decrease but increased, and the cost side was not controlled, and the marketing expenses increased by 15% year-on-year, reaching 1.232 billion.
In 2020-2021, the special environment led to a unique market. In 2021, Cobos' performance broke out. In that year, the global shipment of Cobos' home service robots reached 3.404 million units, with a year-on-year growth of only 10.81%, although not high; However, the average shipment price was as high as 1963 yuan, an increase of 43.67%, and the core was that the price increase led to the soaring performance.
In 2021, the company's revenue soared to 13.083 billion yuan, an increase of 146.35%; The net profit reached 2.01 billion yuan, an increase of 15.6 times over 2019. Among them, the domestic business is the main growth point, the annual revenue reached 8.368 billion, an increase of 117%. Market expectations are also full in advance, pulling the company's stock price to a historical high of 250.71 yuan/share in July 2021, with a market value of more than 140 billion yuan, and also getting the title of "sweeping grass".
In addition to price increases to drive the performance, Cobos 2021 highlights are also the result of heavy marketing, 2019-2021, Cobos sales expenses were 1.232 billion yuan, 1.561 billion yuan, 3.237 billion yuan, doubled in 2021, nearly 80% are marketing promotion and advertising costs. Compared with the research and development cost of 549 million yuan in 2021, Coworth is more like a home appliance enterprise that fights channels and marketing.
03
Cobos' throes
External pressure, after the special period, the "lazy economy" no longer continues, superimposed weak consumption and the adjustment of the real estate market, and after the fresh energy, let the sweeping robot this single performance of the "pseudo just need" product cost significantly decreased, these will inevitably make the sweeping robot more home appliances cold.
Moreover, due to the weak barriers of sweeping robots, many new players Xiaomi, stone technology, and the three giants of white goods, the United States, Haier and Gree are also easy to enter the market, the price war is inevitable, stone technology (688169.SH) in the first three quarters of 2023 revenue of 5.689 billion yuan, an increase of 29.51%; Net profit returned to the mother of 1.36 billion yuan, an increase of 59.1%, has exceeded Cobos. According to statistics, the average price of sweeping robots fell by 15% in the first half of 2023, and the price is still falling. Such a price trend, Cobos in 2021 to raise prices to achieve self-defeating results.
In 2022, the company's marketing expenses reached an astonishing 4.623 billion yuan, more than 6 times the research and development investment, of which marketing promotion and advertising expenses were 3.606 billion yuan, accounting for 78.01% of sales expenses. This makes the profitability of Cobos is also tested, the company has no choice but to "increase income does not increase profit", the third quarter of this year net interest rate of less than 1%.
In the face of market saturation, Covos also wanted to transform, cooking robots, outdoor or commercial cleaning robots, but it seems that they can not escape the fate of the home, and outdoor or commercial cleaning robots more markets are overseas, the domestic market is still difficult. Want to layout a new robot category, but not willing to increase investment in research and development costs, only investment marketing and channels still have to face competitors' "internal volume".
Robots or small appliances? Cobos is still dealing with the pain.
The writer | Liu Chaoran is from | Talent magazine